Russia's war against Ukraine: preliminary observations

Russia has launched an exceedingly cynical war of aggression against Ukraine. Since the apparently anticipated blitzkrieg victory didn’t materialise, this war enters a more complex and potentially even more devastating phase. All wars develop their own dynamics and often unexpected trajectories. Still, after some two weeks into the fighting, while Russian forces lay siege to Ukrainian cities, massive refugee flows are forming and several mediation efforts are under way, it may be worthwhile to formulate (in a non-hierarchical order) a couple of early observations.

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